10 August 1988 Short Term Prediction Of Optical Turbulence Parameters
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Time series measurements of optical turbulence parameters allow estimation of future values. First, a secular global model is found from the "Clear" database. Then statistical approaches which use past and present data to predict future points are examined. One predictive technique applies the global model plus auto-regression. Comparisons are made with: a.) the global model alone, b.) a polynomial extrapolation, and c.) the assumption that the predicted value equals the present value. The method using auto-regressive linear prediction is the most accurate. This is due to the fact that short-term correlation exists over five to thirty minutes. Sufficient stationarity apparently exits which allows good estimates of one set of prediction coefficients for the entire data base.
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James H Brown, James H Brown, Neil J Grossbard, Neil J Grossbard, } "Short Term Prediction Of Optical Turbulence Parameters", Proc. SPIE 0926, Optical, Infrared, Millimeter Wave Propagation Engineering, (10 August 1988); doi: 10.1117/12.945786; https://doi.org/10.1117/12.945786

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