The variations in solar and geomagnetic activity modulate the dynamics of global military activity

P. E. Grigoriev; B. M. Vladimirskiy; S. V. Pobachenko; M. V. Sokolov

doi:10.1117/12.2504614

13 December 2018 The variations in solar and geomagnetic activity modulate the dynamics of global military activity

P. E. Grigoriev, B. M. Vladimirskiy, S. V. Pobachenko, M. V. Sokolov

Proceedings Volume 10833, 24th International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics; 10833A9 (2018) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2504614
Event: XXIV International Symposium, Atmospheric and Ocean Optics, Atmospheric Physics, 2018, Tomsk, Russian Federation

Abstract

The report presents a retrospective analysis of the relationship between the annual values of the global index of Wheeler's military activity with the yearly values of Wolf Numbers (solar activity) and aa-index (geomagnetic activity). The analysis covered the XII-XVII centuries. Previously, such detailed comparisons for a given time interval were not carried out, primarily due to the lack of exact series of indexes, which were only relatively recently reconstructed at the Pulkovo Observatory. It is established that the maximum bursts of military activity fall on years with extremely low values of geomagnetic activity over the entire time interval, and vice versa. In turn, there was confirmed the earlier result about the coincidence of the Long-wave peaks of the Kondratyev economic conjuncture with the solar activity peaks: for 2 years before the maximum of Kondratieff waves, the Wheeler index takes the maximum value. Such heterogeneous dependencies and apparent contradictions with the classical results of A.L. Chizhevsky of economic and military activity on space weather require additional research. However, in any case it can be argued that, in addition to the well-known result of A.L. Chizhevsky about the confinement of revolutions and wars to maxima of solar activity, there is also an absolutely opposite class of events: bursts of military activity in years with extremely low geomagnetic and solar activity, and vice versa: the minimum of military events in years with extremely high values of geomagnetic and solar activity.

Citation Download Citation

P. E. Grigoriev, B. M. Vladimirskiy, S. V. Pobachenko, and M. V. Sokolov "The variations in solar and geomagnetic activity modulate the dynamics of global military activity", Proc. SPIE 10833, 24th International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics, 10833A9 (13 December 2018); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2504614

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