An approach for forewarning forest fires in Shivalik forest tracts of Uttarakhand by application of fire trends and Keetch Byram Drought Index

Harshi Jain

doi:10.1117/12.2572128

20 September 2020 An approach for forewarning forest fires in Shivalik forest tracts of Uttarakhand by application of fire trends and Keetch Byram Drought Index

Harshi Jain

Author Affiliations +

Proceedings Volume 11528, Remote Sensing for Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Hydrology XXII; 115280O (2020) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2572128
Event: SPIE Remote Sensing, 2020, Online Only

Abstract

Fires are a widespread phenomenon in Indian forests. Limited fore-knowledge of the impending ignition potential is one of the main causes for not-so-effective forest-fire management in the country. The present study is an approach to link the forest fire trends and the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI) for assessing forest fire forewarning. Fire trends were analysed based on forest fire incidents detected by MODIS remotely-sensed data in the Shivalik Forest tracts of Uttarakhand State of India over a period of 16 years (2001-2016) to identify vulnerable window of most-prone weeks. The study has also used KBDI to calculate the drought build-up in an area based on which severity of impending forest fires can be predicted. The index was tested in the study area for the years 2014-2016. This is one-of the first attempts for inclusion of KBDI in understanding forest fire regime in Indian conditions. Based on the weekly-trends obtained from forest fire points during 2001-2016 affirm the most vulnerable time period for occurrence of forest fire in the study region is from week 14 to week 22. Further, the performance of KBDI proved to be a valid parameter in forecasting severity of forest fire as its pattern over the 3-years of study period (2014-2016) showed the same dynamics. The minimum value of KBDI i.e. ‘dip’ value is significant for its use as a predictor to severity of the fire season in the ensuing summer a full 10 weeks in advance! The findings of the present study pave the path for identifying the high risk areas and severity of possible fires in the following fire season by correlating remote sensing and GIS techniques with Fire trends, peak period and Keetch Byram Drought Index. This study has a potential for adoption in countries like India for modern forest fire preparedness and management in a cost-effective manner.

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Harshi Jain "An approach for forewarning forest fires in Shivalik forest tracts of Uttarakhand by application of fire trends and Keetch Byram Drought Index", Proc. SPIE 11528, Remote Sensing for Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Hydrology XXII, 115280O (20 September 2020); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2572128

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