Models of target acquisition by human observers are probabilistic. Two reasons for the indeterminate nature of the models are (1) the observer ensemble includes individuals with varying levels of competence in target acquisition, and (2) the target acquisition process is itself (at least in part) a random process. Each of the two commonly used combat simulations, CASTFOREM and JANUS, assumes that (a different) one of these completely accounts for the indeterminacy, and ignores the other. While the distinction is irrelevant for the simple one-on-one case, it has recently been shown that the choice can affect the outcomes of more realistic many-on-many engagements. We propose a model in which target detection probability is a function of both a target statistic and an observer statistic. Our analysis of recently compiled observer test data validates the model and provides it with the correct quantitative balance between variations among observers and the inherently stochastic component of target acquisition.
James D. Silk, James D. Silk,
"Modeling the observer in target acquisition", Proc. SPIE 2743, Infrared Imaging Systems: Design, Analysis, Modeling, and Testing VII, (10 June 1996); doi: 10.1117/12.241950; https://doi.org/10.1117/12.241950