14 October 1997 Learning curve approach to projecting cost and performance for photovoltaic technologies
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The current cost of electricity generated by PV power is still extremely high with respect to power supplied by the utility grid, and there remain questions as to whether PV power can ever be competitive with electricity generated by fossil fuels. An objective approach to this important question was given in a previous paper by the authors which introduced analytical tools to define and project the technical/economic status of PV power from 1988 through the year 2010. In this paper, we apply these same tools to update the conclusions of our earlier study in the context of recent announcements by Amoco/Enron-Solar of projected sales of PV power at rates significantly less than the U.S. utility average.
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George D. Cody, George D. Cody, Thomas Tiedje, Thomas Tiedje, "Learning curve approach to projecting cost and performance for photovoltaic technologies", Proc. SPIE 3138, Optical Materials Technology for Energy Efficiency and Solar Energy Conversion XV, (14 October 1997); doi: 10.1117/12.279195; https://doi.org/10.1117/12.279195

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