1 November 1999 Project DANA: multiagent simulation and fuzzy rules for international crisis detection--can we forestall wars?
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Abstract
Assessing the conflicting potential of an international situation is very important in the exercise of Defence duty. Mastering a formal method allowing the detection of risky situations is a necessity. Our aim was to develop a highly operational method twinned with a computer simulation tool which can explore a huge number of potential war zones, and can test many hypotheses with high accuracy within reasonable time. We use a multi-agents system to describe an international situation. The agent coding allows us to give computer existence to very abstract concepts such as: a government, the economy, the armed forces, the foreign policy... We give to these agents fuzzy rules of behavior, those rules represent human expertise. In order to yardstick our model we used the Falklands war to make our first simulations. The main distortion between the historical reality and our simulations comes from our fuzzy controller which causes a great loss of information. We are going to change it to a more efficient one in order to fit the historical reality. Agent coding with fuzzy rules allows human experts to keep close to their statements and expertise, and they can handle this kind of tool quite easily.
© (1999) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.
Roger F. Cozien, Andre Colautti, "Project DANA: multiagent simulation and fuzzy rules for international crisis detection--can we forestall wars?", Proc. SPIE 3812, Applications and Science of Neural Networks, Fuzzy Systems, and Evolutionary Computation II, (1 November 1999); doi: 10.1117/12.367686; https://doi.org/10.1117/12.367686
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