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15 July 2002 Operational concept for effects-based course-of-action development and evaluation in a war game
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Operational Concepts for planning, executing and assessing Effects-Based Operations (EBO) have been evolving over the past 5 years. The EBO concept is based on relating actions in a battle plan to overall effects. Evaluating these relationships requires the synthesis of a number of modeling approaches. A prototype system to assist in developing Courses of Action (COAs) for Effects-Based Operations and evaluating them in terms of the probability of achieving the desired effects has been developed and is called CAESAR II/EB. The tool supports both static and dynamic evaluation of COAs by integrating influence nets with discrete event systems modeling techniques. One challenge being addressed is how to use this type of modeling capability in real world command and control environments. Preliminary operational concepts were tested during the Naval War College Global 2000 and 2001 war games. The organizational location of the modeling team and its interaction with the multiple command and control cells in the game using network centric collaborative tools was tested and examined. Experiences with building and using the models as a decision support system for the war game are described. In addition requirements for enhancements to the modeling techniques generated from this experience are discussed.
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Lee William Wagenhals "Operational concept for effects-based course-of-action development and evaluation in a war game", Proc. SPIE 4716, Enabling Technologies for Simulation Science VI, (15 July 2002);


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