5 January 2005 Status and outlook of very short range forecasting system in Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan
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Abstract
The main purpose of Very Short-Range Forecasting System (VSRFS) is to develop algorithms for real-time monitoring and forecasting severe weather systems, which may result in flood, flash flood or landslide in Taiwan area. The operational VSRFS has being under progressive development in CWB since 2002. One component of the VSRFS is the QPESUMS system which is under a joint development program between US NOAA/NSSL and CWB. In QPESUMS, the Doppler radar, satellite infrared, raingauge and other data sources are ingested to make QPE for severe weather systems in Taiwan. Products from QPESUMS are presented in web page format. Currently, it shows that the QPE from QPESUMS has a good agreement with the surface observation when precipitation rate is greater than 10mm/hr. Efforts are put to the improvement of QPESUMS for making reasonable 0-2hr QPF by the end of 2005. Another component of the VSRFS is a diabatically initialized LAPS-MM5 system which is under a joint development program between NOAA/FSL and CWB for 2-12hr QPF. LAPS-MM5 is designed to effectively shorten the spin-up problem of simulating convective storms. Various data sources are assimilated into LAPS for MM5 to make time integration. It turns out that LAPS-MM5 is capable to predict the strength and location of heavy precipitation system with 6-hourly rain rate greater than 35mm (higher Equitable Threat Score), yet prone to over-predict the rainfall rate when precipitating system was weaker. In order to suit the need for near real-time (2-12hr) severe weather forecast, many challenging tasks related to the cloud/moisture analysis, dynamic/thermodynamic balance schemes are to be overtaken in the forthcoming years.
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Paul Tai-Kuang Chiou, Paul Tai-Kuang Chiou, Chia-Rong Chen, Chia-Rong Chen, Pao-Liang Chang, Pao-Liang Chang, Guo-Ji Jian, Guo-Ji Jian, } "Status and outlook of very short range forecasting system in Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan", Proc. SPIE 5658, Applications with Weather Satellites II, (5 January 2005); doi: 10.1117/12.601195; https://doi.org/10.1117/12.601195
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