This paper describes a prototype model for exploring counterterrorism issues related to the recruiting effectiveness of organizations such as al Qaeda. The prototype demonstrates how a model can be built using qualitative input variables appropriate to representation of social-science knowledge, and how a multiresolution design can allow a user to think and operate at several levels - such as first conducting low-resolution exploratory analysis and then zooming into several layers of detail. The prototype also motivates and introduces a variety of nonlinear mathematical methods for representing how certain influences combine. This has value for, e.g., representing collapse phenomena underlying some theories of victory, and for explanations of historical results. The methodology is believed to be suitable for more extensive system modeling of terrorism and counterterrorism.
Paul K. Davis, Paul K. Davis,
"A qualitative multiresolution model for counterterrorism", Proc. SPIE 6227, Enabling Technologies for Simulation Science X, 62270F (22 May 2006); doi: 10.1117/12.667001; https://doi.org/10.1117/12.667001