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22 May 2006 Foresight for commanders: a methodology to assist planning for effects-based operations
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Abstract
Looking at the battlespace as a system of systems is a cornerstone of Effects-Based Operations and a key element in the planning of such operations, and in developing the Commander's Predictive Environment. Instead of a physical battleground to be approached with weapons of force, the battlespace is an interrelated super-system of political, military, economic, social, information and infrastructure systems to be approached with diplomatic, informational, military and economic actions. A concept that has proved useful in policy arenas other than defense, such as research and development for information technology, addressing cybercrime, and providing appropriate and cost-effective health care, is foresight. In this paper, we provide an overview of how the foresight approach addresses the inherent uncertainties in planning courses of action, present a set of steps in the conduct of foresight, and then illustrate the application of foresight to a commander's decision problem. We conclude that foresight approach that we describe is consistent with current doctrinal intelligence preparation of the battlespace and operational planning, but represents an advance in that it explicitly addresses the uncertainties in the environment and planning in a way that identifies strategies that are robust over different possible ground truths. It should supplement other planning methods.
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Paul K. Davis and James P. Kahan "Foresight for commanders: a methodology to assist planning for effects-based operations", Proc. SPIE 6227, Enabling Technologies for Simulation Science X, 62270I (22 May 2006); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.667033
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