19 May 2006 Rapid aim identification for surface to air missiles with a hierarchical search
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This work deals with the following question: using passive (line-of-sight angle) observations of a multistage surface to air missile from an aircraft, how can one infer that the missile is or is not aimed at the aircraft. The observations are assumed to be made only on the initial portion of the missile's trajectory. The approach is to model the trajectory of the missile with a number of kinematic and guidance parameters, estimate them and use statistical tools to infer whether the missile is guided toward the aircraft or not. A mathematical model is presented for a missile under pure proportional navigation with a changing velocity (direction change as well as speed change), to intercept a nonmaneuvering aircraft. A maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is used for estimating the missile's motion parameters and a goodness-of-fit test is formulated to test if the aircraft is the aim or not. Using measurement data from several realistic missiles - single stage as well as multistage - aimed at an aircraft, it is shown that the proposed method can solve this problem successfully. The key to the solution, in addition to the missile model parametrization, is the use of a reliable global optimization algorithm with a hierarchical search technique for the MLE. The estimation/decision algorithm presented here can be used for an aircraft to decide, in a timely manner, whether appropriate countermeasures are necessary.
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V. Ravindra, V. Ravindra, X. D. Lin, X. D. Lin, L. Lin, L. Lin, Y. Bar-Shalom, Y. Bar-Shalom, S. Gottesman, S. Gottesman, } "Rapid aim identification for surface to air missiles with a hierarchical search", Proc. SPIE 6236, Signal and Data Processing of Small Targets 2006, 62360E (19 May 2006); doi: 10.1117/12.667005; https://doi.org/10.1117/12.667005

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