18 April 2006 Intent inference for attack aircraft through fusion
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Abstract
Intent inference is about analyzing the actions and activities of an adversarial force or target of interest to reach a conclusion (prediction) on its purpose. In this paper, we report one of our research works on intent inference to determine the likelihood of an attack aircraft being tracked by a military surveillance system delivering its weapon. Effective intent inference will greatly enhance the defense capability of a military force in taking preemptive action against potential adversaries. It serves as early warning and assists the commander in his decision making. For an air defense system, the ability to accurately infer the likelihood of a weapon delivery by an attack aircraft is critical. It is also important for an intent inference system to be able to provide timely inference. We propose a solution based on the analysis of flight profiles for offset pop-up delivery. Simulation tests are carried out on flight profiles generated using different combinations of delivery parameters. In each simulation test, the state vectors of the tracked aircraft are updated via the application of the Interacting Multiple Model filter. Relevant variables of the filtered track (flight trajectory) are used as inputs to a Mamdani-type fuzzy inference system. The output produced by the fuzzy inference system is the inferred possibility of the tracked aircraft carrying out a pop-up delivery. We present experimental results to support our claim that the proposed solution is indeed feasible and also provides timely inference that will assist in the decision making cycle.
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Gee Wah Ng, Khin Hua Ng, Rong Yang, Pek Hui Foo, "Intent inference for attack aircraft through fusion", Proc. SPIE 6242, Multisensor, Multisource Information Fusion: Architectures, Algorithms, and Applications 2006, 624206 (18 April 2006); doi: 10.1117/12.664843; https://doi.org/10.1117/12.664843
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