Self-protection systems using expendable pyrotechnics have been in operational service for several decades, and still
enjoy a significant popularity on military platforms, due to potentially high efficiency, low cost and versatility. Recent
developments in advanced materials as well as spatial and temporal behaviour optimization using advanced simulation
tools also contribute to continued success against threat systems of ever-increasing sophistication.
One of the most significant drawbacks of these systems is the limited capacity of the countermeasures dispensers of
such a system. The risk of emptying the countermeasures dispensers leads to restrictions in the acceptable false-alarm-rate,
again leading to a reduced detection probability. The approaches for optimization known to the author have been
either one of Monte-Carlo simulations or a functional threat countering analysis. Neither of these brings insight into the
parameters relating the overall performance of the self-protection system against one missile attack and the overall
platform survivability on a mission.
In this work, a new model is presented where an overall survivability probability can be calculated and optimized,
including the effect of a limited dispenser capacity versus countermeasures program size as well as missile approach
warning systems key parameters, such as detection probability and false-alarm-rate. The model is extended to allow
independently variable missile attack- and false-alarm probabilities. Criteria for choosing optimal flare programs are
presented. It is shown that a dynamic update of the self protection system can enhance the performance of self protection
systems deploying expendable countermeasures. Monte-Carlo-simulations are shown to be in good
agreement with the model.