5 October 2006 Quantitative optimisation of expendable countermeasures
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Self-protection systems using expendable pyrotechnics have been in operational service for several decades, and still enjoy a significant popularity on military platforms, due to potentially high efficiency, low cost and versatility. Recent developments in advanced materials as well as spatial and temporal behaviour optimization using advanced simulation tools also contribute to continued success against threat systems of ever-increasing sophistication. One of the most significant drawbacks of these systems is the limited capacity of the countermeasures dispensers of such a system. The risk of emptying the countermeasures dispensers leads to restrictions in the acceptable false-alarm-rate, again leading to a reduced detection probability. The approaches for optimization known to the author have been either one of Monte-Carlo simulations or a functional threat countering analysis. Neither of these brings insight into the parameters relating the overall performance of the self-protection system against one missile attack and the overall platform survivability on a mission. In this work, a new model is presented where an overall survivability probability can be calculated and optimized, including the effect of a limited dispenser capacity versus countermeasures program size as well as missile approach warning systems key parameters, such as detection probability and false-alarm-rate. The model is extended to allow independently variable missile attack- and false-alarm probabilities. Criteria for choosing optimal flare programs are presented. It is shown that a dynamic update of the self protection system can enhance the performance of self protection systems deploying expendable countermeasures. Monte-Carlo-simulations are shown to be in good agreement with the model.
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Harald Hovland, Harald Hovland, } "Quantitative optimisation of expendable countermeasures", Proc. SPIE 6397, Technologies for Optical Countermeasures III, 63970G (5 October 2006); doi: 10.1117/12.689805; https://doi.org/10.1117/12.689805

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