The climate is changing due to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases. If concentrations continue to increase, climate
models project climate change in this century, with significant impacts on many human sectors, and particularly agriculture.
Agriculture is a fundamental production sector for society, especially for large population countries such as China. Wheat is
the second most important crop in China. Therefore, using climate change projections and crop models in order to understand
the impacts of climate change on Chinese agriculture, especially on winter wheat, is extremely helpful to policy makers and
international agencies. CERES-Wheat, a dynamic process crop growth model, will be calibrated and validated for current
production at ten sites in the major winter wheat-growing region of China-Yellow Huai-Hai plain. Using two Global Climate
Models, it will then be used to simulate production changes under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 climate change scenarios.
Simulations will consider impacts for rainfed and irrigated winter wheat, with and without CO2 fertilization. Simulation
results indicated the possibility of significant impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in this region, with
marked differences between rainfed and irrigated production. In conclusion, this exercise successfully tested the applicability
of standard climate change impact assessment methodology to an important production region of China.