10 September 2008 The comparative experiments on ensemble prediction based on two groups of initial conditions
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Based on the system of three-dimensional variational assimilation (3D-VAR), the numerical experiments of ensemble hindcasting for 17 years are performed in East Asia in this paper. There are two groups of experiments, the initial conditions are supplied by the system of 3D-VAR in the first group experiment and that in the second are NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 data. The experiments use the model which is a grid-point Atmospheric General Circulation Model with 9 vertical levels and a resolution of 2° in latitudinal and 2.5° in longitudinal direction, developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP9L2×2.5-AGCM).The technique of Correlation Analysis is applied. Comparison results show that anomaly correlation coefficients of most variables (for example, geopotential height and temperature, etc) are larger in the first experiment not only in the mid- and upper troposphere, but also in lower troposphere. This is an indication that initial conditions provided by 3D-VAR may include more information, What's more, they may be corresponded to dynamical model.
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Yuanhong Guan, Weisong Lu, Guangqing Zhou, "The comparative experiments on ensemble prediction based on two groups of initial conditions", Proc. SPIE 7083, Remote Sensing and Modeling of Ecosystems for Sustainability V, 70830T (10 September 2008); doi: 10.1117/12.793361; https://doi.org/10.1117/12.793361

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