Simulations of IPCC SRES effect upon winter wheat growing in the Chinese Huang-Huai valley

Shuyan Li; Lin Cheng; Ronghua Liu; Xinli Wang

doi:10.1117/12.794564

10 September 2008 Simulations of IPCC SRES effect upon winter wheat growing in the Chinese Huang-Huai valley

Shuyan Li, Lin Cheng, Ronghua Liu, Xinli Wang

Proceedings Volume 7083, Remote Sensing and Modeling of Ecosystems for Sustainability V; 70831H (2008) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.794564
Event: Optical Engineering + Applications, 2008, San Diego, California, United States

Abstract

Using 1994-2006 typical-station agricultural data of the Huang-Huai winter wheat zone for the adjustment and validation of the DSSAT-CERES Wheat model, which is then used with the IPCC SRES climate scenarios (A2 and B2) through a stochastic weather generator, simulation is undertaken of effects of the 2050s climate regime on winter wheat yield, growth/development and water requirement in the Huang-Huai plain. Results suggest that of the two emission schemes, A2 gives higher negative influence compared to B2; the wheat growth/development period is shortened by 18 days, on average, for the region due to global warming leading to the accelerated growth, the flowering occurring ~20 days in advance, the span from flowering to maturity shortened 1~2 days, and the regional yield reducing by ~10%, on the average. Enough irrigation will be needed to alleviate the yield decline but the wheat productivity per unit water volume is to reduce.

Citation Download Citation

Shuyan Li, Lin Cheng, Ronghua Liu, and Xinli Wang "Simulations of IPCC SRES effect upon winter wheat growing in the Chinese Huang-Huai valley", Proc. SPIE 7083, Remote Sensing and Modeling of Ecosystems for Sustainability V, 70831H (10 September 2008); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.794564

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