10 September 2008 Simulations of IPCC SRES effect upon winter wheat growing in the Chinese Huang-Huai valley
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Abstract
Using 1994-2006 typical-station agricultural data of the Huang-Huai winter wheat zone for the adjustment and validation of the DSSAT-CERES Wheat model, which is then used with the IPCC SRES climate scenarios (A2 and B2) through a stochastic weather generator, simulation is undertaken of effects of the 2050s climate regime on winter wheat yield, growth/development and water requirement in the Huang-Huai plain. Results suggest that of the two emission schemes, A2 gives higher negative influence compared to B2; the wheat growth/development period is shortened by 18 days, on average, for the region due to global warming leading to the accelerated growth, the flowering occurring ~20 days in advance, the span from flowering to maturity shortened 1~2 days, and the regional yield reducing by ~10%, on the average. Enough irrigation will be needed to alleviate the yield decline but the wheat productivity per unit water volume is to reduce.
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Shuyan Li, Lin Cheng, Ronghua Liu, Xinli Wang, "Simulations of IPCC SRES effect upon winter wheat growing in the Chinese Huang-Huai valley", Proc. SPIE 7083, Remote Sensing and Modeling of Ecosystems for Sustainability V, 70831H (10 September 2008); doi: 10.1117/12.794564; https://doi.org/10.1117/12.794564
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