Land is an indispensable natural resource for human, without which we cannot survive and develop. Land-use
change, influenced by both natural environment and human activity, has a close relationship with food security, resource
utilization, biodiversity and climate change. In order to understand the process and driving mechanism of land-use
change, dynamic models were developed in these years, among which Dinamica EGO is a practical one and has been
widely used in the world. In this paper, we aim to use Dinamica EGO to simulate the land-use of China in 2005 with data
extracted from SPOT VGT NDVI. The real land-use map was compared with the simulation result so as to verify the
feasibility of Dinamica EGO. Then we supposed three sceneries under which we could analyze the land-use change of
China in 2020. Results indicated that: on the basis of no extreme natural disasters or exceptional policy fluctuation, the
grassland area would reduce by 22.21 million hectares averagely. However forest would increase by 19.81 billion
hectares on average. Water and unused land would probably remain stable as there was little change in three sceneries.
Farmland areas showed a good agreement under these sceneries whereas the greatest difference in land-use area
estimations lies in built-up with an uncertainty accounting for 1.67%.