The Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) onboard ASTRO-H (Hitomi) achieved a high energy resolution of ~ 4.9 eV at 6 keV with an X-ray microcalorimeter array kept at 50 mK in the orbit. The cooling system utilizes liquid helium, and a porous plug phase separator is utilized to confine it. Therefore, it is required to keep the helium temperature always lower than the λ point of 2.17 K in the orbit. To clarify the maximum allowable helium temperature at the launch also considering the uncertainties of the initial operation in the orbit, we constructed a thermal mathematical model of the SXS dewar which properly implements the helium mass flow rate through the porous plug, and carried out time-series thermal simulations. Based on the results, the maximum allowable helium temperature at the launch was set at 1.7 K. We also conducted a transient thermal calculation using the actual temperatures at the launch as initial conditions. As a result, the helium mass flow rate when the helium temperature was in equilibrium is estimated to be 34–42 μg/s, and the life time of the helium mode is predicted to be ~ 3.9–4.7 years. The present paper reports model structures, simulation results, and the comparisons with temperatures measured in the orbit.