26 July 2016 A real-time prediction system for solar weather based on magnetic nonpotentiality (I)
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Abstract
The Sun is the source of space weather. The characteristics and evolution of the solar active-region magnetic field closely relate to violent solar eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections. The Solar Magnetic Field Telescope in Huairou Solar Observing Station has accumulated numerous vector magnetogram data of solar photospheric active regions (AR) covering nearly 30 years. Utilizing these precious historical data to establish statistical prediction models for solar eruptive events, not only can provide a reference for the timely adjustment of observation mode to specific active regions, but also can offer valuable reference to the monitoring and forecasting departments of solar and space weather. In this part of work, we focus on the Yes/No and occurrence time predictions for AR-related solar flares, and the predictions independently rely on the vector magnetic-filed observation of the solar surface.
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Xiao Yang, Xiao Yang, GangHua Lin, GangHua Lin, YuanYong Deng, YuanYong Deng, } "A real-time prediction system for solar weather based on magnetic nonpotentiality (I)", Proc. SPIE 9913, Software and Cyberinfrastructure for Astronomy IV, 99133Z (26 July 2016); doi: 10.1117/12.2232257; https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2232257
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