A probability theory of laser safety at sea is presented. A method is developed to calculate the probability that the human eye in the neighborhood of a laser operation at sea will be damaged by the laser beam. It takes into account the laser power, pulse rate, the sea state, specular reflectance, foam reflectance, angle of incidence, position of the eye with respect to the laser spot on the sea, the typical stare time of the eye, the maximum permissible exposure to a given type of laser beam, etc. The known sea reflectance formulas are used to develop the theory with the help of the Poisson distribution. Contour maps showing the probability of eye damage near a laser spot on the sea under typical conditions are presented.