Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Aqua has been in operation providing continuous global observations for science research and applications since 2002. The long-term stability of thermal emissive bands (TEBs) of Aqua MODIS was monitored through inter-comparisons with measurements by hyperspectral or multi-spectral infrared sensors or through vicarious monitoring over cold targets such as Dome-C and deep convective clouds. The radiative transfer modeling (RTM)-based simulation models are developed to perform the long-term monitoring of the stability of Aqua MODIS TEBs. Long-term European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global atmospheric reanalysis data are used as inputs to the RTM simulation. By confining ocean in low to middle latitudes as the area of interest, the long-term stabilities of Aqua MODIS TEBs are monitored through observation minus background (O-B) brightness temperature (BT) bias between MODIS measurements and simulations from the RTM. In general, the RTM-based O-B analysis shows that the long-term stability of Aqua MODIS TEBs are maintained well. It is shown that Aqua MODIS surface bands are all radiometrically stable with yearly BT bias drifts <0.005  K  /  year for B20, B22, and B23 and ∼0.01  K  /  year for B31 and B32. The carbon dioxide (CO₂) absorption channels of Aqua MODIS, e.g., B33 to B36, are stable with a BT bias drift <0.005  K  /  year. It is also found that after accounting for the long-term growth of greenhouse gas N₂O, the O-B bias trends for B24 and B25 are quite stable with yearly BT bias drifts around 0.0002 and 0.0055  K  /  year, respectively. The stabilities of the moisture-sensitive channels B27 to B29 and the ozone channel B30 of Aqua MODIS are also evaluated and the remnant small variations in the O-B bias trending of these channels are further discussed. The RTM-based inter-comparison of MODIS TEB measurements with global atmospheric and climate re-analysis data provides validation of the long-term radiometric stability of Aqua MODIS TEBs. The analysis in this paper also demonstrates that the comparison of well-calibrated MODIS TEB measurements with RTM simulation helps quantify the long-term impacts of global greenhouse gas concentration growth on the BT decreases in the MODIS greenhouse gas-sensitive channels.