Most published works on the subject of Linguistic Geometry, especially, those published in the 90s, are limited to Abstract Board Games where players' moves are either immediately known or perfectly known after some time delay. The method has potential application to more realistic representations of human competition or conflict where all knowledge has some probability of being mistaken, or in the presence of intentional deception by an adversary. Real world experience indicates that the greatest failures in conflicts originate from false "knowledge" taken to be true rather than from lack of knowledge or uncertain perceptions correctly assessed as such. Will Rogers, Jr. put it most succinctly when he said: "It's not what you don't know that hurts you. It's what you think you know that ain't so."
The past decade has produced significant changes in the conduct of military operations: asymmetric warfare, the reliance on dynamic coalitions, stringent rules of engagement, increased concern about collateral damage, and the need for sustained air operations. Mission commanders need to assimilate a tremendous amount of information, rapidly assess the enemy’s course of action (eCOA) or possible actions and promulgate their own course of action (COA) - a need for predictive awareness. Decision support tools in a distributed collaborative environment offer the capability of decomposing complex multitask processes and distributing them over a dynamic set of execution assets that include modeling, simulations, and analysis tools. Revolutionary new approaches to strategy generation and assessment such as Linguistic Geometry (LG) permit the rapid development of COA vs. enemy COA (eCOA). LG tools automatically generate and permit the operators to take advantage of winning strategies and tactics for mission planning and execution in near real-time. LG is predictive and employs deep “look-ahead” from the current state and provides a realistic, reactive model of adversary reasoning and behavior. Collaborative environments provide the framework and integrate models, simulations, and domain specific decision support tools for the sharing and exchanging of data, information, knowledge, and actions. This paper describes ongoing research efforts in applying distributed collaborative environments to decision support for predictive mission awareness.
No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy - this is a famous adage attributed to a great many military thinkers from Belisarius to Clausewitz, but which is essentially timeless. Indeed, while the Blue side is trying to anticipate and predict the enemy action, this enemy is actively trying to do the same with respect to Blue while simultaneously trying to deny Blue sufficient information on which to predict Red's actions. It becomes even worse when the Red side is actively engaged in deceptive behavior leading to ambushes and other deceptive schemes causing losses to the Blue side. Linguistic Geometry (LG), a new game-theoretical approach, permits uncovering enemy deceptive schemes via indicators and probes. We will describe the theory behind the LG approach to deception and discuss a specific example of discerning enemy deception via LG algorithms.
In the modern world of rapidly rising prices of new military hardware, the importance of Simulation Based Acquisition (SBA) is hard to overestimate. With SAB, DOD would be able to test, develop CONOPS for, debug, and evaluate new conceptual military equipment before actually building the expensive hardware. However, only recently powerful tools for real SBA have been developed. Linguistic Geometry (LG) permits full-scale modeling and evaluation of new military technologies, combinations of hardware systems and concepts of their application. Using LG tools, the analysts can create a gaming environment populated with the Blue forces armed with the new conceptual hardware as well as with appropriate existing weapons and equipment. This environment will also contain the intelligent enemy with appropriate weaponry and, if desired, with a conceptual counters to the new Blue weapons. Within such LG gaming environment, the analyst can run various what-ifs with the LG tools providing the simulated combatants with strategies and tactics solving their goals with minimal resources spent.
In the increasingly NetCentric battlespace of the 21st century, Stilman Advanced Strategies Linguistic Geometry software has the potential to revolutionize the way that the Navy fights in two key areas: as a Tactical Decision Aid and for creating a relevant Common Operating Picture. Incorporating STILMAN's software into a prototype Tactical Action Officers (TAO) workstation as a Tactical Decision Aid (TDA) will allow warfighters to manage their assets more intelligently and effectively. This prototype workstation will be developed using human-centered design principles and will be an open, component-based architecture for combat control systems for future small surface combatants. It will integrate both uninhabited vehicles and onboard sensors and weapon systems across a squadron of small surface combatants. In addition, the hypergame representation of complex operations provides a paradigm for the presentation of a common operating picture to operators and personnel throughout the command hierarchy. In the hypergame technology there are game levels that span the range from the tactical to the global strategy level, with each level informing the others. This same principle will be applied to presenting the relevant common operating picture to operators. Each operator will receive a common operating picture that is appropriate for their level in the command hierarchy. The area covered by this operating picture and the level of detail contained within it will be dependent upon the specific tasks the operator is performing (supervisory vice tactical control) and the level of the operator (or command personnel) within the command hierarchy. Each level will inform the others to keep the picture concurrent and up-to-date.
Many existing automated tools purporting to model the intelligent enemy utilize a fixed battle plan for the enemy while using flexible decisions of human players for the friendly side. According to the Naval Studies Board, "It is an open secret and a point of distress ... that too much of the substantive content of such M&S has its origin in anecdote, ..., or a narrow construction tied to stereotypical current practices of 'doctrinally correct behavior.'" Clearly, such runs lack objectivity by being heavily skewed in favor of the friendly forces. Presently, the military branches employ a variety of game-based simulators and synthetic environments, with manual (i.e., user-based) decision-making, for training and other purposes. However, without an ability to automatically generate the best strategies, tactics, and COA, the games serve mostly to display the current situation rather than form a basis for automated decision-making and effective training. We solve the problem of adversarial reasoning as a gaming problem employing Linguistic Geometry (LG), a new type of game theory demonstrating significant increase in size in gaming problems solvable in real and near-real time. It appears to be a viable approach for solving such practical problems as mission planning and battle management. Essentially, LG may be structured into two layers: game construction and game solving. Game construction includes construction of a game called an LG hypergame based on a hierarchy of Abstract Board Games (ABG). Game solving includes resource allocation for constructing an advantageous initial game state and strategy generation to reach a desirable final game state in the course of the game.
We investigate the technical feasibility of implementing LG-ANALYST, a new software tool based on the Linguistic Geometry (LG) approach. The tool will be capable of modeling and providing solutions to Air Force related battlefield problems and of conducting multiple experiments to verify the quality of the solutions it generates. LG-ANALYST will support generation of the Fast Master Air Attack Plan (MAAP) with subsequent conversion into Air Tasking Order (ATO). An Air Force mission is modeled employing abstract board games (ABG). Such a mission may include, for example, an aircraft strike package moving to a target area with the opposing side having ground-to-air missiles, anti-aircraft batteries, fighter wings, and radars. The corresponding abstract board captures 3D air space, terrain, the aircraft trajectories, positions of the batteries, strategic features of the terrain, such as bridges, and their status, radars and illuminated space, etc. Various animated views are provided by LG-ANALYST including a 3D view for realistic representation of the battlespace and a 2D view for ease of analysis and control. LG-ANALYST will allow a user to model full scale intelligent enemy, plan in advance, re-plan and control in real time Blue and Red forces by generating optimal (or near-optimal) strategies for all sides of a conflict.
LG-GUARD employs a hierarchy of multi-resolution games (LG hypergame) to represent various areas of operations at different levels of detail. LG-GUARD includes a full implementation of advanced fire control by dynamic preemptive control of sensor-to-shooter and shooter-to-target pairing. However, the greatest advantage of LG-GUARD is a fast planning and re-planning based on the Linguistic Geometry (LG) approach. This ability allows LG-GUARD to generate COA aiming to achieve the commander's intent for the entire operation, vs. an ability to shoot as many targets as possible at each snapshot of a battle. LG-GUARD operates in two modes. The Planning Mode (long range planning) enabled LG-GUARD to automatically select best types, quantities, and locations for defensive assets from the entire area permitted for the operations of the Blue side to achieve a given probability of success (with as little total opportunity cost as possible). After selection and turning to the Engagement Mode (short range planning), LG-GUARD generates the best courses of action for all sides of the most probable operation (which involves defensive assets selected in the Planning Mode). The capabilities of LG-GUARD are shown in this paper by describing two kinds of scenarios, those executable now and those to be executable in the near future.
The Linguistic Geometry (LG) approach provides theoretical foundations of the Effects Based Operations (EBO) such as cascade effects, centers of gravity (COG), effect inference, etc. This approach is based on the concept of LG hypergames. The first prototype of LG hypergame, LG-EBO, developed in 2001, demonstrated an LG-inference of direct and indirect effects from distant causes as well as reverse inference of minimal list of causes from the desired effects. In addition, LG-EBO was the first LG prototype capable of demonstrating deceptive tactics for both sides of a conflict. In this paper we further develop our approach to EBO by giving a comprehensive description of LG approach to EBO including theory and applications.
Linguistic Geometry (LG) is a revolutionary gaming approach which is ideally suited for military decision aids for Air, Ground, Naval, and Space-based operations, as well guiding robotic vehicles and traditional entertainment games. When thinking about modern or future military operations, the game metaphor comes to mind right away. Indeed, the air space together with the ground and seas may be viewed as a gigantic three-dimensional game board. Refining this picture, the LG approach is capable of providing an LG hypergame, that is, a system of multiple concurrent interconnected multi-player abstract board games (ABG) of various resolutions and time frames reflecting various kinds of hardware and effects involved in the battlespace and the solution space. By providing a hypergame representation of the battlespace, LG already provides a significant advance in situational awareness. However, the greatest advantage of the LG approach is an ability to provide commanders of campaigns and missions with decision options resulting in attainment of the commander's intent. At each game turn, an LG decision support tool assigns the best actions to each of the multitude of battlespace actors (UAVs, bombers, cruise missiles, etc.). This is done through utilization of algorithms finding winning strategies and tactics, which are the core of the LG approach.
The LG approach permits a game representation of the Engagement Theater in two modes, called the planning mode and the execution mode. The planning mode assumes that the computations are to be performed well before the actual engagement and thus a sophisticated (but slower) planning component of the LG hypergame is to be activated. On the planning stage, the emphasis is on the following. 1) distributing the battlefield resources to optimize some battlefield related criteria. Important optimization criteria are battlefield related, ones such as probabilities to achieve desired ends and survivability of the friendly forces; 2) developing of preliminary strategies for the commander to achieve certain desired end; 3) playing several what if situations to develop alternative strategies. Whereas the COA options for the resource distribution game could influence the COA options for selection of the preliminary and alternative strategies, the strategies are used to validate the effectiveness of the resource distribution, thus creating a feedback loop tying together the resources and battlefield actions. On the execution stage, the emphasis is on protecting the commander from possible errors caused by the information blizzard. The commander could have so many things on his/her mind that some negative consequences of a COA being decided upon may be overlooked. A faster execution version of the LG-based tool is intended to catch the undesired consequence and warn the commander.
Our LG-based overall model of a battlespace stems from a new concept of the LG hypergames. A hypergame is a collection of several inter-linked concurrent abstract board games (ABG). It may include a number of military ABG with different boards of various space-time resolutions. A move in one of the ABG may change the state of the rest of the ABG included in the hypergame. For example, the WWII Normandy Invasion hypergame includes three ABG: Allies' troop-ships invasion through the English Channel, Battle on the Normandy beaches, and Allied Air Force missions to cut German supply routs. In addition, an LG hypergame may include non-military games, such as transportation, politics, or economy. Multiple ABG included in the hypergame are separate games bounded by their boards and pieces, though linked through the mappings. However, LG zones may stretch through these boundaries to cover several ABG. As a result, the LG strategies for the players in a hypergame fully account for drastic mutual influence of multiple subgames included in the hypergame.
LG-CONSTRUCTOR is a knowledge acquisition and construction component intended to facilitate rapid deployment of the LG- based tools. LG-CONSTRUCTOR will supply warfighters at all levels with the patterns of games. A warfighter will be able to consider and visualize the most viable patterns and quickly convert them into the LG hypergame, most adequate to the current mission. The adequacy of construction will be tested on the fly by playing and re-playing semi-finished hypergames. In order to construct a hypergame, LG- CONSTRUCTOR will define the board (with specific space-time scale), the pieces, the variety of legal movements and other activities of pieces, additional gaming constraints that define legal moves like winning conditions, rules of engagement, abort conditions, etc. LG-CONSTRUCTOR will store a number of pattern-ABG and complete pattern-hypergames developed earlier. After deployment to the mission, the military personnel will be able to play an appropriate pattern-hypergame. During this play, a military analyst will dynamically adjust this game to the real state of affairs. The required knowledge acquisition by pattern-game playing and game adjustment will be controlled by LG-CONSTRUCTOR. Step-by-step, by interacting with an analyst, LG-CONSTRUCTOR will generate a new hypergame, a network of interlinked ABG. For this generation, it may combine a number of pattern-ABG and complete pattern-hypergames. LG-CONSTRUCTOR will be capable of the real time construction due to transparency of LG game representation and high computational efficiency of LG-Strategist, an LG strategy-generating component. It will assist LG-CONSTRUCTOR in testing new games. This construction by playing and adjusting certain game-patterns will allow rapid deployment of LG-STRATEGIST during the mission. In this paper, we will consider the details of required knowledge acquisition and construction.
Asymmetric operations represent conflict where one of the sides would apply military power to influence the political and civil environment, to facilitate diplomacy, and to interrupt specified illegal activities. This is a special type of conflict where the participants do not initiate full-scale war. Instead, the sides may be engaged in a limited open conflict or one or several sides may covertly engage another side using unconventional or less conventional methods of engagement. They may include peace operations, combating terrorism, counterdrug operations, arms control, support of insurgencies or counterinsurgencies, show of force. An asymmetric conflict can be represented as several concurrent interlinked games of various kinds: military, transportation, economic, political, etc. Thus, various actions of peace violators, terrorists, drug traffickers, etc., can be expressed via moves in different interlinked games. LG tools allow us to fully capture the specificity of asymmetric conflicts employing the major LG concept of hypergame. Hypergame allows modeling concurrent interlinked processes taking place in geographically remote locations at different levels of resolution and time scale. For example, it allows us to model an antiterrorist operation taking place simultaneously in a number of countries around the globe and involving wide range of entities from individuals to combat units to governments. Additionally, LG allows us to model all sides of the conflict at their level of sophistication. Intelligent stakeholders are represented by means of LG generated intelligent strategies. TO generate those strategies, in addition to its own mathematical intelligence, the LG algorithm may incorporate the intelligence of the top-level experts in the respective problem domains. LG models the individual differences between intelligent stakeholders. The LG tools make it possible to incorporate most of the known traits of a stakeholder, i.e., real personalities involved in the conflict with their specific individual style.
The LG-WGT approach to EBO may be summarized as follows. 1) Causes and Effects will be defined as game state properties. 2) LG algorithms will automatically generate strategies to attain desired effects. The strategies will be generated through LG Zones. LG will model effects as properties of the game pieces and relations among the pieces and the board. 3) The overall Engagement Theater will be modeled as LG hypergame, that is several concurrent abstract board games (ABG) linked together via inter-linking mappings (ILM). LG will represent indirect effects in a related game linked with the game of interest via several ILMs. With LG-WGT, a commander will observe the entire operation as an omnipresent ghost with a virtual camera. He/she would be able to view the operation from the cockcpit of a fighter flying on a SEAD mission, from the cabin of an amphibious vehicle, through the periscope of an attack submarine, or from a virtual AWACS flying over the entire battlefield. Even a normally invisible element, like damages to adversarial infrastructure or political changes, will be made visible in virtual reality together with the chain of events causing this effect. The LG-WGT will provide explanation for all the decisions made employing probabilities of kill, integrated probabilities of survival, threshold for retreat, etc.
LG STRATEGIST is an advanced software package based on the new type of game theory called Linguistic Geometry. This theory allows us to generate best war-gaming strategies in real time. Armed with LG STRATEGIST, a commander would obtain hands-on capability to plan missions, respond immediately to crisis, run what-if analysis, and monitor the execution of operations at all levels. With little experience, a commander could turn LG STRATEGIST into a friendly tactical/operational advisor or a devil advocate, into his/her personal chief of staff.