Proceedings Article | 25 October 2010
KEYWORDS: Meteorology, Databases, Atmospheric modeling, Remote sensing, Data modeling, Environmental sensing, Humidity, Satellites, Temperature metrology, Meteorological satellites
In the last ten years, with the help of satellite remote sensing, we build up a huge database of fire points in China. The
remote sensing data that we used to do the fire monitoring include NOAA, FY-1, FY-3 and MODIS. In this paper, we
present a new model for fire forecast base on the former database and NCEP reanalysis data of last ten years. As we
know, the reason of land surface fire can be divided to two groups: subsurface property and meteorological factors. Both
of them are very complicated. For subsurface property, there are many factors that relational to wild fire, such as land
surface type and combustible material. For meteorological factors, they also strongly impact to the fire occur. There are
four factors of meteorological should be pay attention in the fire forecast, they are wind speed, precipitation, temperature
and humidity. For the former two groups of reasons of fire's taken place, we build a two-part model to do the fire
forecast. For the first part, corresponding to the subsurface factors, we used the ten years fire points monitoring database
to describe it. We do the statistics on the database by five days (overlapping, 366 periods totally) and 0.5625 degree grid
(according to NCEP). In each grid and each period of days, the average number of fire points describes the fire status
corresponding to the average meteorological conditions and subsurface condition at that grid and at that time period. For
the second part, firstly, we average the four meteorological factors into five days periods and 0.5625 degrees grids;
secondly we evaluate the different of the four factors from the average value in the target day (forecast day).
