PROCEEDINGS ARTICLE | May 13, 2016

Proc. SPIE. 9863, Smart Biomedical and Physiological Sensor Technology XIII

KEYWORDS: Mathematical modeling, Logic, Biomedical optics, Liver, Error analysis, Numerical simulations, Liver cancer, Sensor technology, Systems modeling, Current controlled current source, Data analysis

We estimate the critical proportion of immunity (Pc) to control hepatitis B in Medellin - Colombia, based on a random population survey of 2077 individuals of 6-64 years of age. The force of infection (Fi) was estimated according to empirical data of susceptibility by age S(a), assuming a quadratic expression. Parameters were estimated by adjusting data to a nonlinear regression. Fi was defined by -(ds(a)/da)/s(a) and according to the form of the empirical curve S(a) we assume a quadratic expression given by S(a)= Ea2+Ba+C. Then we have the explicit expression for the accumulated Fi by age given by F(a) = -a(Ea+B)/c. The expression of average infection age A is obtained as A = L + EL3/(3C)+BL2/(2C) and the basic reproductive number R_{0} is obtained as R_{0} = 1 + 6C/(6C+2EL2+3BL). From the las result we obtain the Pc given by Pc= 6C/(12C+2EL2+3BL). Numerical simulations were performed with the age-susceptibility proportion and initial values (a=0.02, b=20, c=100), obtaining an adjusted coefficient of multiple determination of 64.83%. According to the best estimate, the algebraic expressions for S(a) and the Fi were derived. Using the result of Fi, we obtain A = 30, L =85; R0 CI 95%: 1.42 – 1.64 and Pc: 0-0.29. These results indicate that at the worst case, to maintain control of the disease should be immunes at least 30% of susceptible individuals. Similar results were obtained by sex and residential area.