The relationship between the daily precipitation intensity and daily temperature conditions were studied for the 1961- 2017 period using meteorological stations data and ERA-Interim reanalysis. Most of the datasets show a statistically significant relationship between the intensity of extreme precipitation and temperature. In winter and autumn, the extreme precipitation intensity tends to be higher at warmer daily mean temperatures. For the warmer seasons (spring and summer) the most typical type of scaling is non-monotonous, where the increase of extreme precipitation stops at very high temperatures. For example, typical temperature threshold values for summer are 15-20°C. A strong precipitation decrease was observed only in the summer period at the southern part of European Russia.
Variations of the frequency of extreme daily precipitation events in winter and summer in the Russian Federation were studied for the 1961-2013 period using meteorological stations data. Future changes were estimated using data of the global climate models from CMIP5 model ensemble. In winter, there is a slight increase in the extreme precipitation frequency throughout Russia except for the Far East. By the end of the twenty-first century, models predict an overall strengthening of this trend. In summer, current changes are less significant and characterized by strong spatial heterogeneity. According to the CMIP5 models, the frequency of extreme precipitation will decrease in western and southern parts of Russia by the end of the 21st century and will increase in the northern and eastern regions.
Variations of the frequency and intensity of extreme daily precipitation in summer in the southeast of the Far East Federal District of the Russian Federation, - in region with high risks of extreme seasonal floods, were studied for the period 1970- 2015 using data of 54 meteorological stations. Future changes for the period 2041-2060 were estimated using data of the global climate models HadGEM and MPI-ESM. It is shown that the observed and projected changes in frequency extreme daily precipitation events in summer are diverse and statistically insignificant when averaged for the whole study area. However, a growth of extreme daily precipitation intensity in the north of the study area and in the south of Sakhalin island is found in obserations for the recent period 2000-2015 being relative to 1970-1999. Such a tendency is projected by the middle of the 21st century according to the HadGEM and MPI-ESM models.