Mr. Nikolaos T. Tselikas Profile

Nikolaos T. Tselikas

at National Technical Univ/Athens

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Publications (3)

Proceedings Article | 19 June 2015 Paper

Modified-Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas method for earthquake prediction

A. Boucouvalas, M. Gkasios, N. Tselikas, G. Drakatos

Proceedings Volume 9535, 95351A (2015) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2192683

KEYWORDS: Earthquakes, Sun, Planets, Physics, Remote sensing, Environmental sensing, Solar system, Solar processes, Earth's atmosphere, Electromagnetic coupling

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The FDL method makes use of Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers and has shown considerable success in predicting earthquake events locally as well as globally. Predicting the location of the epicenter of an earthquake is one difficult challenge the other being the timing and magnitude. One technique for predicting the onset of earthquakes is the use of cycles, and the discovery of periodicity. Part of this category is the reported FDL method. The basis of the reported FDL method is the creation of FDL future dates based on the onset date of significant earthquakes. The assumption being that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series The connection between past earthquakes and future earthquakes based on FDL numbers has also been reported with sample earthquakes since 1900. Using clustering methods it has been shown that significant earthquakes (<6.5R) can be predicted with very good accuracy window (+-1 day). In this contribution we present an improvement modification to the FDL method, the MFDL method, which performs better than the FDL. We use the FDL numbers to develop possible earthquakes dates but with the important difference that the starting seed date is a trigger planetary aspect prior to the earthquake. Typical planetary aspects are Moon conjunct Sun, Moon opposite Sun, Moon conjunct or opposite North or South Modes. In order to test improvement of the method we used all +8R earthquakes recorded since 1900, (86 earthquakes from USGS data). We have developed the FDL numbers for each of those seeds, and examined the earthquake hit rates (for a window of 3, i.e. +-1 day of target date) and for <6.5R. The successes are counted for each one of the 86 earthquake seeds and we compare the MFDL method with the FDL method. In every case we find improvement when the starting seed date is on the planetary trigger date prior to the earthquake. We observe no improvement only when a planetary trigger coincided with the earthquake date and in this case the FDL method coincides with the MFDL. Based on the MDFL method we present the prediction method capable of predicting global events or localized earthquakes and we will discuss the accuracy of the method in as far as the prediction and location parts of the method. We show example calendar style predictions for global events as well as for the Greek region using planetary alignment seeds.

Proceedings Article | 12 August 2014 Paper

Leading time domain seismic precursors

A. Boucouvalas, M. Gkasios, A. Keskebes, N. Tselikas

Proceedings Volume 9229, 92291H (2014) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2066317

KEYWORDS: Earthquakes, Stereolithography, Physics, Detection and tracking algorithms, Sun, Mathematical modeling, Global Positioning System, Information theory, Algorithm development, Solar processes

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The problem of predicting the occurrence of earthquakes is threefold. On one hand it is necessary to predict the date and magnitude of an earthquake, and on the other hand the location of the epicenter. In this work after a brief review of the state of earthquake prediction research, we report on a new leading time precursor for determining time onset of earthquake occurrence. We report the linking between earthquakes of the past with those which happen in the future via Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers (FDL) numbers. We demonstrate it here with two example seed earthquakes at least 100 years old. Using this leading indicator method we can predict significant earthquake events >6.5R, with good accuracy approximately +- 1 day somewhere in the world. From a single seed we produce at least 100 trials simultaneously of which 50% are correct to +- 1day. The indicator is based on Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers (FDL). This result hints that the log periodic FDL numbers are at the root of the understanding of the earthquake mechanism. The theory is based on the assumption that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series. (The mechanism could well be linked to planetary orbits). When future dates are derived from clustering and convergence from previous strong earthquake dates at an FDL time distance, then we have a high probability for an earthquake to occur on that date. We set up a real time system which generates FDL time series from each previous significant earthquake (>7R) and we produce a year to year calendar of high probability earthquake dates. We have tested this over a number of years with considerable success. We have applied this technique for strong (>7R) earthquakes across the globe as well as on a restricted region such as the Greek geographic region where the magnitude is small (>4R-6.5R). In both cases the success of the method is impressive. It is our belief that supplementing this method with other precursors will enhance significantly the prediction of significant earthquakes.

Proceedings Article | 26 November 2003 Paper

Architectural framework for resource management optimization over heterogeneous wireless networks

Nikos Tselikas, Sofia Kapellaki, Eleftherios Koutsoloukas, Iakovos Venieris

Proceedings Volume 5242, (2003) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.514068

KEYWORDS: Networks, General packet radio service, Global system for mobile communications, Network architectures, Telecommunications, Databases, Wireless communications, Intelligence systems, Computer architecture, Internet

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