In this paper we report the evidence of the potential role of diffluence in the 200hPa wind field off the coast of West Africa in the formation of a significant number of Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes in the recent decade. It is shown that more than 80% cases of hurricanes at Category 4 and above is preceded by upper level diffluence in the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) by 0–5 days. This TEJ is the outflow from the southern flank of the Tibetan anticyclone from the Asian monsoon region.
An attempt is made here to evaluate the skill of forecast during boreal summer monsoon regime over the Indian region using the Observation Simulation System Experiment (OSSE) with Doppler Wind LIDAR (DWL) onboard International Space Station (ISS), assimilated in the initial condition. Through various techniques such as pattern correlation, root mean square error etc, we found that there is some positive impact of assimilating the DWL data on the forecast particularly at the lower tropospheric level. Impact on lowering the RMSE is seen for wind fields in the 850 and 500 hPa over Indian domain but not much impact is seen over larger domain. The moisture field and cloud also show marginal impact due to assimilation of DWL. This indicates that possibly due to lower spatial resolution of DWL data and more data gap over Indian and surrounding oceanic region, the impact on forecast is less. However, it shows the promise that monsoon being a convectively coupled system; increase in spatial data by DWL may better resolve the low level wind and subsequently the low level shear which is important for convection trigger in boundary layer.
Monsoon depressions, that form during the Indian summer monsoon season (June to September) are
known to be baroclinic disturbances (horizontal scale 2000 to 3000 km) and are driven by deep
convection that carries a very large vertical slope towards cold air aloft in the upper troposphere. Deep convection is nearly always organized around the scale of these depressions. In the maintenance of the
monsoon depression the generation of eddy kinetic energy on the scale of the monsoon depression is
largely governed by the “in scale” covariance of heating and temperature and of vertical velocity and
temperature over the region of the monsoon depression. There are normally about 6 to 8 monsoon
depressions during a summer monsoon season. Recent years 2009, 2010 and 2011 saw very few (around
1, 0 and 1 per season respectively). The best numerical models such as those from ECMWF and US
(GFS) carried many false alarms in their 3 to 5 day forecasts, more like 6 to 8 disturbances. Even in
recent years with fewer observed monsoon depressions a much larger number of depressions is noted in
ECMWF forecasts. These are fairly comprehensive models that carry vast data sets (surface and satellite
based), detailed data assimilation, and are run at very high resolutions. The monsoon depression is well
resolved by these respective horizontal resolutions in these models (at 15 and 35km). These
models carry complete and detailed physical parameterizations. The false alarms in their
forecasts leads us to suggest that some additional important ingredient may be missing in these current
best state of the art models. This paper addresses the effects of pollution for the enhancement of cloud
condensation nuclei and the resulting disruption of the organization of convection in monsoon
depressions. Our specific studies make use of a high resolution mesoscale model (WRF/CHEM) to
explore the impacts of the first and second aerosol indirect effects proposed by Twomey and
Albrecht. We have conducted preliminary studies including examination of the evolution of radar
reflectivity (computed inversely from the model hydrometeors) for normal and enhanced CCN effects
(arising from enhanced monsoon pollution). The time lapse histories show a major disruption in the organization of convection of the monsoon depressions on the time scale of a week to ten days in these
enhanced CCN scenarios.
This is a study on seasonal climate forecasts for the Asian Monsoon region. The unique
aspect of this study is that it became possible to use the forecast results from as many as 16 state of
the art coupled atmosphere-ocean models. A downscaling component, with respect to observed
rainfall estimates uses data sets from TRMM and a dense rain gauge distriburion; this enables the
forecasts of each model to be bias corrected to a common 25 km resolution. The downscaling
statistics for each model, at each grid location is developed during a training phase of the model
forecasts; the forecasts from all of the member models use the downscaling coefficients of the
training phase. These forecasts are next used for the construction of a multimodel superensemble. A
major result of this paper is on the climatology of the model rainfall. From the downscaled
multimodel superensemble which shows a correlation of nearly 1.0 with respect to the observed
climatology. This high skill is important for addressing the rainfall anomaly forecasts, which are
defined in terms of departures from the observed (rather than a model based) climatology.
The second part of this study addresses seasonal climate forecasts of Asian monsoon
precipitation anomalies. Seasonal climate forecasts over the larger monsoon Asia domain and over
the regional belts are evaluated. The superensemble forecasts invariably carry the highest skill
compared to the member models globally and regionally. This relates largely to the presence of large
systematic errors in models that carry low seasonal prediction skills. Such models carry persistent
signatures of systematic errors, and their errors are recognized by the multimodel superensemble.
One of the conclusions of this study is that given the uncertainties in current modeling for seasonal
rainfall forecasts, post processing of multimodel forecasts, using the superensemble methodology,
seems to provide the most promising results for the rainfall anomaly forecasts.
The TRMM 3B42 is a gridded 3 hourly data archive that is being provided to the
research community at a horizontal resolution of 25 Km. These estimates are produced in
four stages; (1) the microwave estimates precipitation are calibrated and combined, (2)
infrared precipitation estimates are created using the calibrated microwave precipitation,
(3) the microwave and IR estimates are combined, and (4) rescaling to monthly data is
applied. Each precipitation field is best interpreted as the precipitation rate effective at the
nominal observation time. These gridded estimates are on a 3-hour temporal resolution
and a 0.25-degree by 0.25-degree spatial resolution in a global belt extending from 50°S
to 50°N latitude. Given a rich data base (India Meteorological Department, IMD) of 2100
well distributed rain gauges over India (Rajeevan et. al. 2006), it is possible to reexamine
the TRMM-3B42 data at a very high resolution (25 Km and 3 hours) over land
areas. This is a statistical regression exercise which shows the local correction for the TRMM 3B42 rain over India. A further validation of this product is demonstrated from
daily rainfall prediction using a suite of operational multimodels.
Accumulation of pollution over the southern Arabian Sea has been documented in numerous studies
that followed the INDOEX field project of 1992. In this paper we show several examples of this
feature from the MODIS/CALIPSO data sets. We identify this feature as the Bombay Plume that
makes its way into the Arabian Sea from the west coast of India. A second part of this work is on the
modeling of the impacts of pollutions. For this purpose we use a NASA Goddard Earth Observing
System (GEOS) model to carry out many comparative forecast experiments that include the
pollution based on MODIS and control runs that utilize climatological estimates of pollutions. The
model includes both the direct and indirect effects of aerosols. We noted that: a) The Arabian Sea
experience above normal rain during these periods for the MODIS experiments as compared to the
control. b) The most interesting feature in these results is the documentation of a divergent outflow
center, in the upper troposphere, over regions of the Arabian Sea pollutions when tropospheric
aerosol heating is noted. c) An important related feature is a compensating downward lobe with a
divergent inflow center over the Bay of Bengal. d) The presence of this downward lobe over the Bay
of Bengal shows a reduction of winter monsoon rains over the south-east coast of India. e) We also
show observational evidence of reduced winter monsoon rains over the south-east coast of India during MODIS pollution events from raingauge based estimates.
A combination of current operational global atmospheric and oceanic data sets and those
from ARGO oceanic floats provided a unique opportunity for data assimilation and
seasonal forecasts. This study explores predictability of monsoonal component of the
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) called the Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO). The results
of the inclusion versus non-inclusion of the ARGO temperature profile data sets are
presented here where all other data sets are retained. Somewhat robust seasonal
prediction of the ISO wave was possible from the inclusion of ARGO profile data sets.
These results show very reasonable amplitudes and the meridional phase speed
propagation for the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation on seasonal time scale
predictions. Such results were noted both in the atmospheric motion field (the 850 hPa
level zonal winds) but also in the subsurface thermal fields of the Indian Ocean. These
subsurface temperature structures were not known in previous studies that bring in a new
aspect of the coupled nature of the ISO.
Clouds play a major role in the radiation budget of the earth-atmosphere system. They contribute to a high amplitude of variation on the time scale of one day. This has significant impacts on the climate of the earth. Current cloud parameterization schemes have significant deficiency to predict the diurnal cycle
of cloud cover a few days in advance. The present study addresses this issue utilizing a two fold approach.
We used four versions of the Florida State University (FSU) global spectral model (GSM) including four different cloud parameterization schemes in order to construct ensemble/superensemble forecasts of cloud covers. The results show that it is possible to substantially reduce the 1-5 days forecast errors of phase
and amplitude of the diurnal cycle of clouds with this methodology. Further, a unified cloud parameterization scheme is developed for climate models, which,
when implemented in the FSU GSM, carries a higher skill compared to those of the individual cloud schemes.
This study shows that while the multimodel superensemble is still the best product in forecasting the diurnal cycle of clouds, a unified cloud
parameterization scheme, used in a single model, also provides higher skills
compared to the individual cloud models. Moreover, since this unified scheme is
an integral part of the model, the overall forecast skill improves both in terms of
radiative fluxes and precipitation and thus has a greater impact on both weather
and climate time scales.
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