Early crop yield estimation aids growers of cotton and other crops in making in-season management decisions and estimating the crop’s market value. However, predicting yield early in the growing season is challenging for various reasons including environmental factors and soil variability. Several techniques have been used to estimate cotton yield, and in the last decade machine learning (especially artificial neural networks or ANNs) have been widely adopted. In a standard ANN model, all the input data are collated without considering the temporal characteristics of the data, such as when the data were collected relative to the growth stage of the plants. A modular network called plus artificial neural network (ANN+) was devised to independently receive crop data that has been collected at different stages of crop growth. This study evaluated the potential of adopting ANN+ for early estimation of cotton yield. For this purpose, a field experiment was conducted in central Texas in e2020 and 2021. The study site consisted of three different treatments: variable nitrogen rate, variable fertilizer and irrigation × variety. An unmanned aerial vehicle equipped (UAV) with a five-band multispectral sensor was flown at various cotton growth stages to collect remote sensing data multiple times within 100 days after planting. The UAV was flown at 30 m above ground level, producing a spatial resolution of approximately 0.02 m. The multispectral imagery was used to extract crop spectral, textural and structural information. Along with this information, weather information in term of growing degree days, solar insolation and precipitation were collected for yield estimation. The custom ANN+ model achieved an R2 of 0.90 and mean absolute percentage error of 12.29% for cotton yield estimation. Seasonal temperature data contributed the most information to the model but crop structural and textural metrics from the image data also contributed strongly to the model, suggesting that autonomous aerial systems can be an important part of providing cotton growers early predictions of yield.
Early estimation of canopy nitrogen (N) levels in cotton is necessary to maintain optimal canopy growth and derive best yields. Combining remote sensing and computer vision algorithms has made it possible to extract high-resolution spectral reflectance and canopy level morphology from larger fields. An experiment was conducted to study the response of cotton to four N application rates (0 kg/ha, 56 kg/ha, 112 kg/ha, 168 kg/ha). The differences in canopy N uptake and canopy height in response to the treatments became significant (p-value < 0.05) at the squaring stage. The objective of this study was to detect N stress levels in cotton canopy as early as the squaring stage and also estimate canopy N uptake (kg N/plant) from UAV-based multispectral images. Spectral vegetation indices and morphological features (canopy height and fractional canopy cover) were estimated from calibrated orthomosaics and digital elevation models (DEM). N uptake was estimated by single-parameter regression and multi-parameter regression (LASSO and Random Forest). Unsupervised k-Means clustering was used to separate the plots into three stress levels (stressed, moderately stressed, healthy) in a high dimension space. Canopy height was estimated with an overall R2 = 0.911 and MAPE = 22.244, however the estimation errors were high before the squaring stage. Rededge (RE) band-based indices (NDRE and CIrededge) were more sensitive to canopy N status than others. The best estimates of cotton plant N uptake from single parameter regression were obtained for measure canopy height (MAPE = 30.902) and NDRE (MAPE = 47.501). The multi-parameter models further improved N uptake estimation accuracy (LASSO MAPE = 22.133; random forest MAPE = 23.804). The results from k-means clustering showed that weekly changes (Δweekly) in features had better class separation and accuracy scores than instantaneous values of features observed at squaring. Clustering based on NDRE for canopy pixels and actual height gave the optimum separation (silhouette score = 0.488) and classification accuracy (adjusted rand index = 0.417).
Ground control points (GCPs) are critical for agricultural remote sensing that require georeferencing and calibration of images collected from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) at different times. However, the conventional stationary GCPs are time-consuming and labor-intensive to measure, distribute, and collect information in a large field setup. An autonomous mobile GCP and a cooperation strategy to communicate with the UAV were developed to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the UAV-based data collection process. Prior to actual field testing, preliminary tests were conducted using the system to show the capability of automatic path tracking by reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) for lateral deviation from 34.3 cm to 15.6 cm based on the proposed look-ahead tracking method. The tests also indicated the feasibility of moving reflectance reference panels for every two successive flight paths without having detrimental effects on pixel values in the mosaicked images, with the percentage errors in digital number values ranging from -1.1% to 0.1%. In the actual field testing, the autonomous mobile GCP was able to successfully cooperate with the UAV in real-time without any interruption, showing superior performances for georeferencing, radiometric calibration, height calibration, and temperature calibration, compared to the conventional calibration method that has stationary GCPs.
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