The present study deals with the description of the developed information-computing system based on the model of climatic river flow for the Siberian region. Calculations have been made for eleven Siberian rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean. In connection with the hydrological features of basins, models were based on various implementations of computational codes. At the moment, there is a need to combine these odd models into a single universal computer system that would allow one to make the calculations both for individual basins and for the whole Siberian region, depending on the tasks assigned.
This paper deals with the study of possible changes in the Siberian rivers in the XXIst century. The initial data are the results of calculations for the six models of CMIP-5 IPCC Programme . The calculations include the INM model (Russia), the CNRM (France), the GFDL (the USA), the MIROC5 (Japan), the HadGEM2 (United Kingdom) and the MPI-ESM (Germany). The calculations reveal that the interannual variability of a streamflow in the XXIst century has shared positive trends in a variety of models with significant variations in the influx of fresh water into the Arctic Ocean. The next step was to analyze the hydrological components forming the river flow. The Reasons for the observed fluctuations in hydrological characteristics of the river basins of Siberia, are associated with the Arctic Oscillation, which is confirmed by the correlation links.
The paper discusses the results of calculations by the linear reservoir model of the climatic river runoff for the subarctic Eastern Siberia region. For the verification of the model the measurements data as well as the MERRA reanalysis data for the XX century were used. For the XXI century calculations by the data of the INM, CRNM, GFDL, HadGEM, MIROC5, MPI models of the scenario RCP 8.5 of the Project CMIP5 IPCC were done.
Climatic model of the river runoff with 1/3 degree resolution is presented in the paper. The model is the linear reservoir model i.e., each cell in the model is the reservoir or the cascade of the reservoirs. Data of the ERA40 and MERRA reanalysis for the numerical modeling of the river runoff for the Lena River was used as well as the comparison with the observational data. The control data concerning the river discharge was taken from the results of the measurements on the hydrological station Lena – Kusur. The river discharge model vas also adapted to the delta zone with the 1.8 km resolution.