The socioeconomic aspects of life in coastal regions of India are significantly affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) over North Indian Ocean (NIO). It is well known that the lack of conventional observation over the ocean is a critical factor limiting the accuracy of the TC forecast. The goal of this study is to assess the impact of hyperspectral sounder measurements from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) in the MetOp satellite on TC simulation using NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM) with 17 km horizontal resolution. The results of the study indicate that the assimilation of hyperspectral radiance data has a positive impact on the prediction of track and intensity of TC.
Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.