KEYWORDS: Stochastic processes, Statistical signal processing, Data modeling, Systems modeling, Computer simulations, Signal processing, Autoregressive models, Distributed computing, Algorithm development
The paper is concerned with the sequential online change-point detection problem for a dynamical system driven by a quasiperiodic stochastic process. We propose a multicomponent time series model and an effective online decomposition algorithm to approximate the components of the models. Assuming the stationarity of the obtained components, we approach the change-point detection problem on a per-component basis and propose two online change-point detection schemes corresponding to two real-world scenarios. Experimental results for decomposition and detection algorithms for synthesized and real-world datasets are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of our change-point detection framework.
Classical change-point detection procedures assume a change-point model to be known and a change consisting in establishing a new observations regime, i.e. the change lasts infinitely long. These modeling assumptions contradicts applied problems statements. Therefore, even theoretically optimal statistics in practice very often fail when detecting transient changes online. In this work in order to overcome limitations of classical change-point detection procedures we consider approaches to constructing ensembles of change-point detectors, i.e. algorithms that use many detectors to reliably identify a change-point. We propose a learning paradigm and specific implementations of ensembles for change detection of short-term (transient) changes in observed time series. We demonstrate by means of numerical experiments that the performance of an ensemble is superior to that of the conventional change-point detection procedures.
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